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Can Exports Support Grains?

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Can Exports Support Grains?

Dec 29, 2017

CORN (March)

Yesterdays Close:  March corn futures finished the day 1 ½ cents lower, trading in a range of 3 ½ cents on the session.  Funds were estimated sellers of 4,000 contracts.

Fundamentals:  Export sales came in at 1,245,500 metric tons, this was above the top end of expectations.  Yesterday’s ethanol production report was another good one, in fact it was the second highest on record.  Ethanol production rose 13,000 barrels to 1.090 million barrels per day; we also saw ethanol stocks drop slightly.  Despite a string of strong ethanol numbers, the market is still towards the low end of the range which makes you wonder where we would be if it wasn’t for ethanol.  Weather in South America has perked up which has helped planting progress press towards last years pace and the average pace.  Argentina is estimated to be 70% complete.

Technicals:  The market failed to get follow through “momentum” yesterday after trading six consecutive sessions higher.  7 cents in six sessions is less than impressive, and with the low volume it looks like an opportunity for sellers to become more active.  Our technical resistance comes in from….Please sign up for a Free Trial to view our entire technical outlook, proprietary bias and levels.

SOYBEANS (March)

Yesterdays Close: March soybean futures closed 10 ¼ cents lower yesterday, trading in a range of 12 ¾ cents on the day.  Funds were estimated sellers of 7,500 contracts on the day.

Fundamentals:  Export sales came in at 974,700 metric tons, this was within the expectations.  Weather in South America has and will continue to be a key catalyst to start 2018.  Some areas have received better than expected weather which has given producers the ability to play catch up.  Soybean plating in Argentina is now on pace with last year and gaining ground on the average pace; they are estimated to be 85% complete.  Average analysts for Brazilian bean production are near 112 mmt with estimates ranging up to 4mmt on either side.  Many market participants will be looking forward to the January 12th USDA report will we will get some final reads for US production.

Technicals:  The chart is a technical graveyard, there is really no other way to put it.  The damage over the past three weeks leaves a lot of hurdles for the bulls to overcome.  The significant pocket they need to get back out above comes in from….Please sign up for a Free Trial to view our entire technical outlook, proprietary bias and levels.

WHEAT (March)

Yesterdays Close:  March wheat futures closed down ½ a cent, trading in a range of 3 ½ cents on the day.  Funds were estimated sellers of 1,000 contracts for the session.

Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 478,400 metric tons, this was towards the top end of the range.  Exports continue to be one of the key fundamental catalysts we are keeping an eye on.  These are just not good enough to get the market headed north.  Last week’s number was great, but as we had mentioned, we need to see that be a trend not just once a month.  All the once a month numbers do is set things up for a better opportunity to sell.  Colder than cold weather in some winter wheat growing areas have started talks of potential damage, but that may not be realized for a while.

Technicals:  Bears continue to be in control of the Chicago wheat futures as they have been able to capitalize on lower highs and lower lows for the last six months.  Technical resistance is at….Please sign up for a Free Trial to view our entire technical outlook, proprietary bias and levels.

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