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Latest USDA Wheat Estimates

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WASHINGTON (DTN) — Going against most market expectations, USDA on Tuesday increased estimated corn and soybean yield and production figures, pushing up corn production to an estimated 14.184 billion bushels and soybeans to a record 4.431 billion bushels.

USDA pegged the average corn yield at 169.9 bushels per acre and soybean yield at 49.9 bushels per acre.

Tuesday’s new U.S. ending stocks estimates were bearish for new-crop corn, neutral to bearish for new-crop soybeans and neutral for wheat, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. World ending stocks estimates from USDA were bearish for corn and neutral for soybeans and wheat, he said.

WHEAT: The U.S. 2017/18 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.20 per bushel at the midpoint to a range of $4.30 to $4.90. The reduction is due to NASS prices to date and expectations of future cash prices.

 Global wheat supplies for 2017/18 are lowered as a 1.7-million-ton production increase is offset by a 2.7-million-ton decrease in beginning stocks. The primary production increase is for Russia, which is raised 3.5 million tons to a record 81.0 million tons; this change is based on excellent growing conditions and updated harvest results. Australia production for 2017/18 is lowered 1.0 million tons on dry conditions, and the EU is lowered 0.7 million tons. In addition, historical production changes for Australia led to lower global ending stocks. The 2015/16 Australia production change is on updated Australia Bureau of Statistics data which lowered harvested area 1.5 million hectares. Australia’s 2016/17 harvested area is lowered 0.5 million hectares. Global trade for 2017/18 is essentially unchanged. However, exports are increased 1.0 million tons for Russia on the larger crop, 0.5 million tons for Ukraine, and 0.3 million tons for Turkey. These are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton reduction for EU exports and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Australia. Total global use is up 0.5 million tons. With total supplies declining and use increasing, global ending stocks are lowered 1.6 million tons.

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): http://www.usda.gov/…

CORN

Production for the 2017-18 crop was pegged at 14.184 billion bushels, up 31 million bushels from the August projection, but still 6% lower than the 2016-17 crop.

Yield is projected at 169.9 bushels per acre, up 0.4 bushel per acre from the August report. Still, if realized, yield would be down 4.7 bushels per acre from a year ago.

The production forecast, if realized, would be the third-highest production on record.

USDA also bumped up 2017-18 ending stocks to 2.335 billion bushels, up 62 million bushels from the August report. USDA also lowered old-crop ending stocks by 20 million bushels. Along with 31 million bushels of higher production, USDA also lowered total corn use by 50 million bushels as well. Feed and residual use was raised 25 million bushels, but then offset by 25 million bushels of lower ethanol use as well.

The farm-gate price was lowered for producers by 10 cents a bushel to an average of $3.20.

Globally, USDA lowered beginning stocks for 2017-18 by 1.65 million metric tons. Global corn production was also lowered by 0.84 mmt. Still, USDA lowered global exports for the year by 1.45 mmt, which leads to estimated global ending stocks at 202.47 mmt, up 1.6 mmt from last month’s projections.

SOYBEANS

At 4.431 billion bushels, soybean production for 2017-18 is forecast to be a record crop, a 50-million-bushel bump from the August forecast. Yield was bumped up 0.5 bushel to 49.9 bushels an acre, which is still down 2.2 bushels from 2016-17.

USDA lowered new-crop beginning stocks by 25 million bushels, which was offset by production being bumped up 50 million bushels. USDA raised soybean exports by 25 million bushels to 2.25 billion bushels. At the end, USDA left 2017-18 soybean ending stocks unchanged at 475 million bushels.

The farm price for soybeans was also lowered 10 cents a bushel to an average of $9.20.

Globally, soybean production for 2017-18 is projected at 348.44 million metric tons, an increase of 1.08 mmt from last month. Global ending stocks for soybeans are projected at 97.53 mmt, a decline of 250,000 metric tons from last month’s forecast.

COTTON

USDA added a special note to its monthly Crop Production report highlighting that data collection activities were affected by Hurricane Harvey and “the full impact of this weather event may not be fully reflected in this report.” USDA will go back to collect harvested acres for cotton for Texas and Louisiana for the October Crop Production report. Beyond cotton, USDA will resurvey for rice, sorghum, corn, soybeans and sugarcane as well.

All that said, USDA projected all-cotton production at 21.8 million bales, up 27% from a year ago.

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Editor’s note: Join DTN Senior Analyst Darin Newsom at 12 p.m. CDT Tuesday as he takes a look at the latest USDA Supply and Demand and Crop Production estimates and what they might mean for the markets. To register, visit http://www.dtn.com/…

U.S. CROP PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2017-18
Sept Avg High Low Aug 2016-17
Corn 14,184 14,000 14,195 13,821 14,153 15,148
Soybeans 4,431 4,321 4,417 4,179 4,381 4,307
Grain Sorghum 371 365 376 355 369 480
U.S. AVERAGE YIELD (Bushels Per Acre) 2017-18
Sept Avg High Low Aug 2016-17
Corn 169.9 167.8 170.0 165.5 169.5 174.6
Soybeans 49.9 48.7 49.8 47.1 49.4 52.1
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2017-18
Sept Avg High Low Aug
Corn 2,335 2,133 2,323 1,898 2,273
Soybeans 475 437 540 325 475
Grain Sorghum 29 51 56 45 52
Wheat 933 920 943 875 933
U.S. ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2016-17
Sept Avg High Low Aug 2015-16
Corn 2,350 2,351 2,374 2,300 2,370 1,737
Soybeans 345 364 390 331 370 197
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2017-18
Sept Avg High Low Aug
Corn 202.5 198.2 203.0 189.4 200.9
Soybeans 97.5 97.3 100.0 95.0 97.8
Wheat 263.1 263.9 268.0 258.0 264.7
WORLD ENDING STOCKS (Million Bushels) 2016-17
Sept Avg High Low Aug 2015-16
Corn 227.0 227.9 229.0 225.1 228.6 213.5
Soybeans 96.0 96.8 98.0 95.5 97.0 77.1
Wheat 255.8 258.5 259.0 257.5 258.6 242.9

Picture: Northern Ag Network

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