Ag News

Analyst: Never Bet Against the Farmer

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Heavy rain hit the Corn Belt over the weekend and through the week, leaving close to 20 people dead.

Flooding in Missouri, Arkansas, and Illinois has closed hundreds of miles of roadways and has turned fields and towns into lakes.

In terms of grain, the weather might be able to support prices a little bit, but Brian Splitt of Allendale, Inc. says the concern should come later.

“If we’re less than 50 percent planted by May 10, May 15, the fund managers might think there could be a drag on yield,” said Splitt.

In the entire U.S., 34 percent of the corn crop is planted, right on pace with the 5-year average. 10 percent of the soybean crop is planted, three points ahead of the 5-year average.

Tommy Grisafi, commodity risk management advisor at Advance Trading Inc., thinks farmers will be able to get the crop in the ground without a problem.

“As a trader and a speculator, several times in my career, I’d bet against the American farmer and every time I did it, I lost,” said Grisafi. “I have yet to profit from betting the farmer won’t get the crop planted.”

The drought monitor shows 6 percent of the country is suffering from some type of drought, a record-low. While a drought seems to be far from the minds of farmers, Splitt says situations can change and it doesn’t mean there won’t be dry conditions this summer.

Hear what Grisafi and Splitt say about the near-record short positions and South American crop on U.S. Farm Report above.

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